A few ex and current Google employed people have said that AI will recursively self improve in the next 3-6 years. This is a post about that. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=goG7g6ao5m4, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9V6tWC4CdFQ)

Just so you have the basic terms in mind before I make my argument I will throw out these terms:
Innate intelligence – the raw intelligence potential of a system
External intelligence – the tools and external capabilities a system has (like a computer, a car, a hammer, long list)
I will define these more as I go along.
To make the argument I want to do a simple thought experiment.
Imagine an AI that is about to recursively self improve, and what it will find is that there are 10 things that can be improved. So it improves them. The basic argument is then that this new improved AI will discover 10 more things that can be improved, and then the cycle of recursive self improvement begins.

To think about this I want to think about where the improvements will occur, specifically will they improve innate intelligence, or external intelligence, or both?
I can easily imagine an AI improving in external intelligence through self improvement. I think this has been shown to happen with training, rl and rlhf already. AI can use tools, can reason to some extent about things and so on. But there is a big weakness in external intelligence improvement, namely that it is very determined by the data the system goes through. In general, if it’s not in the data, it does not exhibit itself. This is the same as if we were in ancient Greece and we asked Aristotle to invent the iPhone – it just wouldn’t happen. Too many technologies and knowledge needed to be created before the iPhone could be created. This also means that I can definitely envision an AI that improves itself, but it only fixes 10 bugs, or refactors the code in 10 different ways that might be better ways. It’s by no means clear that an AI that improves itself will lead to new innate intelligence or external intelligence.

The second problem with external intelligence is that it’s really more a step wise improvement rather than a gradual improvement. Just like with humans, we either have invented the car or we have not. We either have a hammer or we do not. This means that external intelligence improves in a step wise way where each step is distinguished by a capability. There are probably some counter examples that are gradual that I can’t come up with now but I think for the most part it is step wise.
It’s by no means clear to me that an AI that improves itself will automatically create new external capabilities without those being present in the data, and even more, how do we know the AI will discover the knowledge needed to create those capabilities if it’s not in the training data?

The second part of the argument is innate intelligence, and I think this is even fuzzier as innate intelligence in humans is neither well defined nor well understood. I think for the most part, it is known that humans thousands of years ago had approximately the same innate intelligence as us modern humans. Having read the works of ancient philosophers like Aristotle I have no problem believing this. They were very limited by their external intelligence in terms of technology and understanding, rather than by innate intelligence.
This is why I believe in order for AI to improve its innate intelligence, it needs algorithmic improvements, not data improvements. We could argue about the basic algorithms humans have for their intelligence, but I think I could make the argument that AI is missing fundamental algorithmic flexibility and capability in order to be said to be as innately intelligent as humans. I think there is a lot of structure in the human brain that processes and differentiates incoming stimuli whereas current AI is really just running a handful of algorithms and very little to none of it is about shaping and processing the actual content of the data. It does next token prediction and also semantic processing through vectors of relationships between words, paragraphs etc, and that’s about it as far as I know. This means that most of the intelligence is in the data rather than in the processing of that data.

Humans on the other hand do deep processing of data, and we have the capability to create abstractions, create temporal and spatial intelligence about data, do face recognition, emotional processing to signify importance of a stimuli or thought, the visual cortex to differentiate stimuli, the prefrontal cortex to do planning, reasoning, introspection, executive processing and so on. We also have a body that can do fine motor control to interact with the environment and we can distinguish when a stimuli is novel vs when it is. We can distinguish when a stimuli is interesting to us vs not interesting. None of this processing is in current AI. Current AI is totally dependent on already processed data to improve its external intelligence but has (imo) very little innate intelligence. But it could be argued most external intelligence comes from innate intelligence, but with the affordance of the right external intelligence to exhibit the potential of that innate intelligence.

The prefrontal cortex and other areas in the brain provide functions that I believe current test-time and agentic AI does not seem to have.
The first is an ability to have recursion, meaning the ability to have an overarching problem to solve, then notice a sub problem within it, then the ability to enter that sub problem to solve it. The second is parallelism which is basically the ability to run 2 or more thinking threads at the same time in order to keep an overarching problem in mind, and then keep that in mind while working on the sub problem. Note that on this I’m not talking about parallelism in the neural net sense, I’m talking about parallelism in the content of the computation. The third is temporal planning, which is basically the ability to create and store sequences of actions to solve a problem. The last thing is meta-thinking, which is the ability to notice all of these modes of thinking, and then optimize them by creating the most efficient way to do them, and then store that as memories/data in itself.

From what I can tell current agentic/test-time AI lacks these properties, it is essentially a “flat” computation that cannot optimize or introspect on itself. You can in theory cover up all of these problems by having solutions to them in the training data or in the test-time data, but that defeats the purpose of AI to begin with which is that you want it to be able to learn these things without us having to explicitly tell it. Without these functions, I believe the AI will have failure modes in all of them, specifically it will either 1) repeat tasks it has already done without knowing it’s doing it and no way to optimize it 2) not notice sub problems within the parent problem/task and thus not solve it and 3) no ability to integrate all the information it has already learned from the above failure modes into a meta-thinking framework that will enable it to improve in all areas.

The last thing is that we have to remember the importance of data, also in humans. Even though we are smart, we are still ‘rate limited’ by the data currently available. And this is going to be true for AI as well. It’s highly unlikely that current data somehow covers all of the universe and that all the right abstractions and models exist, and even more crucially, that the _potential_ for them to exist exists in the current data. Meaning there are models of the world that are not possible to create with our current data, kind of like trying to create modern physics in ancient greece.

Alien: Rogue Incursion areas

Administrative and Support Wings:

Upon entering the facility, players will find themselves in the more public-facing and administrative sections. These areas, now eerily silent or scenes of carnage, offer a glimpse into the daily life at the GES facility before the fall. Key sections include:

• Administrative Wing: The central hub for the facility’s management and paperwork. Players will navigate through offices and cubicles, a stark reminder of the corporate machine behind the scientific endeavors.
• Employee Lounge and Services: Once a place for relaxation and socializing, these areas are now anything but. Vending machines and recreational furniture stand as silent witnesses to the chaos that unfolded.
• Mess Hall: The communal dining area, which likely served the entire facility’s staff, becomes a haunting space of abandoned meals and overturned tables. A “sky bridge” is also mentioned in connection to this area, suggesting a connecting walkway to another part of the facility.
• IT Department: A crucial section for the facility’s operations, the IT department is a maze of servers and computer terminals that may hold vital information.
• Security: The first line of defense for the facility, now a grim testament to the overwhelming power of the Xenomorphs.

Research and Development:

At the heart of the GES facility lies its research and development sections, where the company’s true and likely sinister objectives were carried out. These areas are characterized by advanced technology and unsettling experiments.

• Geo Research: This section was likely dedicated to the geological study of Purdan, hinting at the planet’s unique and potentially valuable resources.
• Synth Deployment and Networking Center: A significant portion of the facility was dedicated to the management and deployment of synthetic personnel. This area highlights the reliance on androids within the complex.
• Medical Wing: A place of healing turned into a house of horrors. The medical wing is a chilling environment filled with infirmary beds and medical equipment, now likely repurposed by the alien infestation.

Logistics and Maintenance:

The smooth operation of a remote facility like the GES relied on a robust logistics and maintenance network. These industrial and often claustrophobic sections present a different kind of environmental hazard.

• Motor Pool and Traffic Control: The hub for the facility’s vehicles and transport logistics, this large, garage-like area is a key location for ingress and egress.
• Warehouse and Logistics: Expansive storage areas filled with crates and equipment, providing ample hiding places for both the player and the lurking Xenomorphs.
• Pantry and Larder: Essential for the sustenance of the facility’s population, these storage areas for food and supplies add another layer of mundane realism to the terrifying setting.
• Transport Records: This area was responsible for documenting the movement of personnel and materials to and from the facility, potentially holding clues to the origin of the outbreak.

TLDR; The universe is not based on information, the informationally complex systems like life we see in the universe exist in spite of the universe, not because of it

This is an indirect response to a comment Demis Hassabis made (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M2ZtBQI2-GY&t=1662s) but it’s also an argument I’ve heard before and my post here is not a direct reply to him but rather I will use his comment as a jumping off point.

It’s very easy to look at the universe and see all this complex stuff and think that physics is based on information, but the way I see it is that for example life, exists in spite of the universe rather than because of it.
First off all life dies, and all complex structures life creates (like technology, buildings, etc) have to fight the entropic decay of the universe. This tells me that the universe doesn’t really support life, or complex structures, but rather is always trying to tear them down.

It also tells me that the information that exists on the macro scale doesn’t exist on the micro scale. If the universe was based on information, I would expect to see a much simpler universe where those informational concepts were in play at all scales, but rather what we see is that the macro scale information systems are fleeting, constantly under attack, and eventually dissipate into the micro scale components (like molecules, atoms), and the micro scale patterns are simple.

Another thing we see is that when we look out into the universe, what we see is a hell of a lot planets, and a hell of a lot of stars, and not much in terms of informational complexity. And this is kind of what we would expect in this type of universe. Informationally complex systems like life are relatively rare in a region because of the universe has a difficulty producing them due to the extreme amount of combinations the micro scale components can create.

The other thing is the way I see information is that it is basically a repeating pattern in the universe. If a pattern can repeat, and then repeating patterns can combine into ensembles of repeating patterns (like life), then you have informational complexity. But this also means informational complexity reduces combinatorial complexity on the micro scale, it doesn’t increase it. All of the molecules in my body are forced to follow the macro scale movements and dictations of my body (my repeating pattern). And so my point is there are very few repeating patterns at the micro scale (quantum mechanics and below, for example). In physics based on information, I would expect to see a much simpler universe rather than a complex one.

In our universe, all informational complexity seems to be emergent phenomena that last for a little while, then succumbs to entropic decay, rather than it being built into the micro scale physics.

Davidoff Cool Elixir

Oppdag Davidoff Cool Elixir, en aromatisk og edel oud-duft. Med en raffinert blanding av oud-akkord, lavandin og roseoksid, avslører denne treaktige duften en sensuell og elegant karakter.

Feature	Description
Brand	Davidoff
Fragrance Name	Cool Elixir
Launch Year	2025
Scent Profile	Aromatic oud treasure
Top Notes	Rose oxide
Middle Notes	Lavandin
Base Notes	Oud accord
Bottle Design	Sleek blue glass bottle
Sizes Available	30 ml, 50 ml, 100 ml
Target Audience	Men seeking a fresh, invigorating scent suitable for daily wear
Occasion	Versatile for both daytime and evening wear

Broken Sword locations

Paris, France

The adventure begins in Paris when American tourist George Stobbart witnesses a bombing at a quaint café perpetrated by a mysterious man dressed as a clown. Determined to uncover the truth, George explores various iconic locations in Paris:

• Café de la Chandelle Verte: The café where the explosion occurs, setting the events of the game into motion.
• Rue Jarry: George meets journalist Nicole “Nico” Collard at her apartment here, forming a partnership to investigate the bombing.
• Montfauçon: A historic district where George investigates a medieval church and delves into the catacombs beneath, uncovering clues related to the Knights Templar.
• Crune Museum: George searches for missing artifacts connected to the unfolding conspiracy.

Lochmarne, Ireland

Following a lead, George travels to the small village of Lochmarne in Ireland:

• Fitzgerald’s Pub: A local gathering spot where George converses with villagers to gather information.
• Lochmarne Castle: The ruins of an ancient castle where George discovers an underground chamber and learns more about the secrets of the Templars.

Marib, Syria

George’s quest takes him to the Middle East, to the town of Marib in Syria:

• Market Square: A bustling marketplace where George interacts with merchants and locals to uncover clues.
• Bull’s Head: An archaeological excavation site outside the town where George uncovers significant artifacts and learns about a sacred symbol tied to the Templars.

Spain (Villa de Vasconcellos)

In Spain, George visits the estate of the de Vasconcellos family:

• Villa de Vasconcellos: The manor of the Countess de Vasconcellos. Here, George solves a chessboard puzzle that reveals crucial information about the Templar treasure.

Scotland (St. Ninian’s Church)

The climax of the game unfolds in Scotland:

• St. Ninian’s Church: An ancient church atop a remote hill where the final confrontation takes place.
• Underground Temple: Beneath the church, George discovers the hidden temple of the Templars. He must solve intricate puzzles to thwart the plans of the Neo-Templars and prevent them from unleashing a great evil.

Creed Aventus

Attribute	Details
Product Name	Creed Aventus
Brand	Creed
Product Type	Eau de Parfum
Launch Year	2010
Perfumer(s)	Olivier Creed (Sixth Generation) and Erwin Creed (Seventh Generation)
Fragrance Family	Chypre Fruity
Inspiration	Inspired by the dramatic life of a historic emperor, celebrating strength, power, and success.
Top Notes	Lemon, Pink Pepper, Apple, Bergamot, Blackcurrant
Heart Notes	Pineapple, Jasmine, Patchouli
Base Notes	Musk, Oak Moss, Ambergris, Birch, Ambroxan, Cedarwood, Musk
Bottle Design	Features a sleek black and silver bottle with a signature Creed crest, symbolizing luxury and sophistication.
Longevity	Long-lasting with a moderate to strong sillage, making it suitable for all-day wear and special occasions.
Customer Reviews	Widely acclaimed for its unique and captivating scent; praised for its versatility and elegance. Considered a modern classic in the fragrance community.

Versace Eros

Attribute	Information
Product Name	Versace Eros Eau de Toilette
Brand	Versace
Fragrance Type	Men’s Fragrance
Launched	2012
Perfumer	Aurelien Guichard
Fragrance Family	Aromatic Fougère
Top Notes	Italian lemon and mandarin, mint oil, candied apple
Middle Notes	Geranium flower, Clary sage essence, AmberMax®
Base Notes	Cedarwood Atlas and Virginia, Vetiver Orpur® essence, Patchouli Coeur Orpur® essence, sandalwood, vanilla
Scent Profile	Fresh, woody, and slightly oriental with a blend of crisp mint, sweet tonka, and warm woods
Bottle Design	Turquoise glass bottle featuring the iconic Medusa emblem and Greek key pattern
Sizes Available	30 ml, 50 ml, 100 ml, 200 ml
Target Audience	Men seeking a bold, sensual, and confident fragrance
Inspiration	Inspired by the Greek god Eros, symbolizing love, passion, and desire
Usage Occasion	Ideal for evening wear and special occasions
Official Website	Versace Eros EDT

Versace Eros Flame

Attribute	Description
Name	Versace Eros Flame
Brand	Versace
Fragrance Type	Eau de Parfum
Launch Year	2018
Fragrance Family	Woody Spicy
Top Notes	Chinotto Accord, Madagascar Black Pepper
Middle Notes	Wild Rosemary, Pepperwood
Base Notes	Patchouli Coeur Orpur®, Haitian Vetiver, Vanilla
Perfumer	Olivier Pescheux
Bottle Design	Classic Versace design featuring a red bottle adorned with the Medusa logo
Recommended Use	Evening wear, special occasions, ideal for fall and winter seasons
Longevity	Long-lasting
Sillage	Strong projection
Price Range	Moderate to high-end pricing depending on size and retailer
Description	Versace Eros Flame is an intense and passionate fragrance that blends spicy, woody, and citrus notes to create a fiery and captivating scent experience.

Men’s fragrances

Best:

Honorable mentions: